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Consider the service planning implications of future demographics

  • Population projections are not available based on registration with a GP.
  • Anticipate future demand for local health and care services by making assumptions based upon resident population projections.
  • Demand for healthcare varies over time and in addition to reflecting general population characteristics, it can also reflect changes in condition prevalence or management outcomes. Population projections are widely used in relation to determinants of health, such as housing, transport and education.
  • Population projections use the Census as a baseline and allow for mortality, fertility and migration to predict future demographics. The longer the term of the projection, the less reliable it is likely to be.
  • The King's Fund identify a number of future trends in the English population (link) that may have local relevance: the population is growing; the population is becoming more diverse; more people are living alone; after recent growth, the number of births each year is expected to level off; life expectancy and healthy life expectancy are growing; the population is ageing; after a recent decline, the number of deaths each year is expected to grow; and health inequalities persist.
  • The Future Trends Report Wales (WG; link) is designed to assist decision makers in Wales take better account of the long term; the 2021 report includes focus on people and population, and on inequalities. It notes slowing population growth; an ageing population; increasing housing demand and need; changing migration patterns; changing health profiles and need; and continued growth of Welsh language.